NY Weather: Just How Much Snow Can We Expect This Sunday?

With a dome of Arctic air firmly parked over the Northeast, the dreaded "rain/snow line" might not be an issue this time. Instead, forecasters are warning of a high-impact, fluffy snow event that could paralyze travel downstate and bury the mountains. Here is the region-by-region breakdown.

The Setup: A Classic Nor'easter Profile

Unlike the "slop storms" we often see, this system is running into a wall of cold air.

• The "Fluff Factor": Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s. This creates "high ratio" snow (approx. 15:1 or 20:1), meaning the snow piles up faster and deeper than a wet, heavy storm.
• The Wind: Because this is a coastal low, wind gusts along the shore could reach 40+ mph, creating blizzard-like visibility even if snowfall rates are moderate.

Regional Forecasts (As of Wednesday Morning)

New York City & Long Island

• The Forecast: This area is currently in the "bullseye" for the heaviest accumulation.
• Expectations: Current models are trending toward 8 to 14 inches for the Five Boroughs and Long Island. The Island, being closer to the offshore energy, has the highest risk of seeing localized totals exceeding 16 inches.
• Impact: Sunday travel could be impossible. The combination of deep, powdery snow and high winds may lead to "whiteout" conditions on the LIE and Belt Parkway.

Hudson Valley & The Catskills

• The Forecast: A skier's dream, a commuter's nightmare.
• Expectations: The Lower Hudson Valley (Westchester/Rockland) will track closely with NYC (8-12 inches). Further north into the Catskills, orographic lifting could squeeze out 12 to 18 inches of champagne powder.
• Impact: Expect major disruptions on I-87 and the Taconic.

Capital Region (Albany) & Eastern Upstate

• The Forecast: Solid, plowable winter storm.
• Expectations: Albany and areas east toward the Berkshires are likely looking at 6 to 10 inches. The air will be very cold here, so the snow will be light and prone to drifting.

Western NY (Buffalo/Rochester)

• The Forecast: You might miss the main event, but you won't escape the cold.
• Expectations: Because this is a coastal storm (Nor'easter), the energy is focused east. Western NY will likely see the "fringe" of the shield, resulting in 3 to 6 inches.
• The Caveat: As the storm departs Monday, the winds shifting over Lake Ontario could trigger a brief lake-effect burst, adding a fresh coat on top of the synoptic snow.

The "Boom or Bust" Scenarios

While confidence is increasing, the exact track of the "low" is critical:

• The "Hugs the Coast" Track (60% Chance): The storm tracks close to Montauk. This maximizes snow for NYC and the Hudson Valley, easily delivering foot-plus totals.
• The "Offshore" Track (40% Chance): The storm drifts 50 miles further east. The City gets a manageable 3-5 inches, and Long Island takes the brunt of the hit.

When Will We Know for Sure?

The National Weather Service typically issues official "Winter Storm Watches" roughly 48 hours out. Expect finalized projected totals by Friday morning. If you have Sunday travel plans out of JFK or LaGuardia, now is the time to check for waivers.