PA Weather: Just How Much Snow Can We Expect This Sunday?

Unlike previous storms that turned to slush, Arctic air is firmly in place. This means we are looking at a high-ratio, fluffy snow event that could pile up quickly. Here is the region-by-region breakdown of what to expect.

The Setup: A "High Ratio" Powder Keg

The defining feature of this storm is the cold. With temperatures forecast in the teens and single digits, the "snow-to-liquid" ratio will be much higher than usual.

• Normal Storm: 1 inch of rain = 10 inches of snow.
• This Sunday: 1 inch of rain = 20 inches of snow.
• Translation: Even a modest amount of moisture will produce a deep, powdery snow pile that is easy to shovel but dangerous to drive in due to blowing and drifting.

Regional Forecasts (As of Wednesday Morning)

Philadelphia & Southeast PA

• The Forecast: Confidence is growing for a significant event. While early models wavered, the current consensus points to 6 to 12 inches of snow.
• The Variable: The storm track. If the coastal low hugs the coast tightly, totals could easily exceed a foot. If it drifts further out to sea, expect the lower end (3-6 inches).
• Timing: Snow begins late Saturday night, becoming heavy throughout Sunday.

Lehigh Valley & The Poconos

• The Forecast: This region is firmly in the "heavy snow" bullseye.
• Expectations: Current models suggest widespread totals of 8 to 12 inches, with higher elevations in the Poconos potentially seeing 15+ inches.
• Impact: Travel on I-80 and I-78 will likely be treacherous to impossible on Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh & Western PA

• The Forecast: The western half of the state is looking at a moderate but impactful event.
• Expectations: Areas north of I-80 generally expect 3 to 5 inches, while Pittsburgh and areas south could see 3 to 8 inches depending on where the "deformation zone" (a band of heavy snow) sets up.
• The Cold: The bigger story here might be the temps—highs on Sunday will struggle to break 17°F, with lows plunging near zero.

Central PA (Harrisburg/Lancaster/York)

• The Forecast: This area is the battleground.
• Expectations: Currently projected for 6 to 10 inches. This corridor is most likely to see the "fluff factor" maximize totals, as it sits perfectly between the coastal moisture and the inland cold.

The "Boom or Bust" Scenarios

Meteorologists caution that two scenarios are still on the table:

1. The "Phased" Monster (50% Chance): The northern and southern jet streams merge perfectly, stalling the storm off the coast. This delivers 12-18 inches to the eastern half of the state.
2. The "Slider" (25% Chance): The storm moves fast and stays flat. This would reduce totals to a manageable 3-6 inches statewide.

When Will We Know for Sure?

Forecast confidence usually locks in roughly 48 hours before the first flake falls. By Friday morning, meteorologists will likely issue specific "Winter Storm Warnings" with finalized inch counts.